Bitcoin Consolidates Near $90,000 as Macro Repricing Takes Over

With the economy sitting in a data blackout and the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut expectations swinging day to day, investors have been forced to navigate the markets without hard macro signals. This is a backdrop where high-beta assets historically drift lower as allocators default to caution. 

Ahead of the FOMC minutes, this week’s drawdown fits squarely within a broader risk-off reset, as no major economic releases have allowed market participants to recalibrate their expectations. As institutional flows retreat, the market becomes increasingly retail-driven, a setup that typically brings sharper swings in volatility. 

Macro repriced as uncertainty deepens

The level matters. According to Farside data, $90,400 marks the average cost basis for spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, effectively the market’s institutional “breakeven line.” 

Sliding below, it pushes the largest marginal buyers into negative territory, reducing their ability and willingness to absorb volatility. As the price drops through this area, the ETF bid that supported much of the 2024 rally temporarily steps back, leaving spot markets exposed. 

At the same time, stress signals emerging from the AI and mega-cap tech complex have added another layer of pressure. Ahead of NVIDIA’s earnings report, speculation about an AI bubble intensified markedly. Credit-default swap spreads for major AI-linked firms - including hyperscalers and GPU-heavy data centre operators - have widened materially in recent weeks, reflecting rising stress around aggressive capital expenditures, long-dated revenue assumptions, and growing debt loads. 

As tech risk re-rates, the spill-over into crypto has been immediate, given crypto markets still trade as a high-beta extension of the innovation and tech trade, making it acutely sensitive to cracks in sentiment.

Market breadth confirms this shift toward defensiveness. Outside isolated bright spots, the market is displaying signs of widespread exhaustion. Glassnode data shows that only 5% of the supply of the top 500 altcoins is currently in profit, a level consistent with deep capitulation zones and one of the deepest readings of the cycle. When only a handful of niches outperform while the rest of the market sits at steep unrealized losses, it signals not rotation, but system-wide derisking. 

U.S.-led selling driving breakdown 

While the macro backdrop explains the shift in risk appetite, the actual selling pressure behind Bitcoin’s move below $90,000 has come overwhelmingly from the United States. Hourly data shows a consistent pattern: Bitcoin stabilizes or rebounds during Asian and European trading hours, only to be sold aggressively once US markets open. 

Nearly every major red candle in the past week has been stamped during the US session, erasing gains and drilling new lows. 

(Source: Binance)

This dynamic is corroborated by the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index’s data from Coinglass, which has remained deeply negative since 31 Oct. US spot prices have traded below the global composite for several weeks, signaling persistent domestic selling pressure. Over the past five days, the premium surged, plunging to –0.124% this week, its strongest print since the February trade war escalation. 

The timing of this renewed divergence coincides almost perfectly with Bitcoin’s slide from $100,000 to below $90,000, emerging as a clear indication that US flows have been a key pillar of the downside, hitting bids faster than global markets can absorb. 

On the other hand, demand from Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) has also faded as valuations compress across the crypto-linked equity universe. As tech and crypto-exposed stocks retreat, the DAT flywheel - which had previously added incremental spot Bitcoin demand - has cooled. 

With fundraising more difficult and balance sheets tightening, DATs are no longer stepping in to absorb supply. Combined with sustained ETF outflows, the market has effectively lost two of its strongest year-to-date buyer pillars as macro uncertainty spikes. ETF outflows have accelerated sharply, and over the past three weeks, spot Bitcoin ETFs have shed approximately $3.37 billion, according to Farside data, reinforcing the view that US investors - particularly retail ETF holders - are capitulating. 

Options markets confirm the broader picture. Market-value put volume now exceeds call volume, indicating traders are paying a real premium for downside protection. Over the last month, the skew between call and put market value has turned decisively negative, reflecting a shift toward defensive positioning consistent with a heightened uncertainty around the US macro outlook. 

Onchain stress: Realized losses signal retail capitulation

Onchain data shows that long-term holders across every major cohort are actively distributing, from 6-month wallets to multi-year supply bands such as 18 months, 3 years, and even 7 years. This broad-based, long-term distribution is highly unusual and reflects profit-taking from deep in the money, rather than distress. 

That is coinciding with large wallets reducing risk as year-end approaches. Yet this time it has surfaced sooner than they typically would, as traders expect that the forthcoming leg of the cycle is unlikely to match the strength of prior years. 

However, what is amplifying the downside is the behavior of short-term holders (<155 days), whose cost basis remains clustered around the $110,000 area, according to Research Bitcoin Lab data. As prices break far below their entry levels, these new entrants are capitulating aggressively, incurring steep losses and accelerating the drawdown.  

The unrealized loss relative to market gap metric - a ratio that captures the weight of aggregate paper losses relative to Bitcoin’s total market capitalization – supports this view. 

While the latest print is the highest in six months, it remains relatively modest compared to prior stress episodes, far below the 10+ readings seen during deep corrections, and nowhere near the 56.5 peak of the Nov 2022 bear-market capitulation. 

For now, the magnitude closely mirrors the Sep 2024 correction and the trade war escalation sell-off, two events characterized by sharp short-term stress but contained long-term damage. The common thread across all these episodes is the same: realized losses spike to bear-market capitulation levels among short-term holders, while broader unrealized losses stay contained because long-term holders are selling from a position of large accumulated profit. 

Indeed, short-term participants’ supply has essentially capitulated. With retail and fresh entrants having exhausted most of their selling capacity, only long-term holders and large allocators retain the selling power to push the market substantially lower. 

Outlook supports medium-term flows 

Despite the short-term turbulence driven by rate-cut repricing, the broader macro environment has not deteriorated. The global policy cycle is still tilted toward easing: the Federal Reserve’s QT program concludes on 1 Dec, Japan has proposed a substantial fiscal package, and US fiscal channels continue to inject support through household-targeted measures, including direct aid. 

China has also shifted toward accommodation, with the PBoC adding liquidity through targeted lending facilities and reserve-ratio flexibility. These dynamics indicate that macro liquidity is not tightening; if anything, it is stabilizing at supportive levels. 

For now, the market remains in a holding pattern. With no fresh data, rate expectations rely almost entirely on Fed communication and consensus narratives, creating uncertainty but not structural stress. 

As soon as visibility returns, flows will follow. Historically, once macro clarity improves, sidelined capital re-engages quickly, especially in high-conviction assets.