Fed Flying Blind as Data Blackout Scraps October Jobs Report

In a move that leaves the central bank navigating a crucial policy window with almost zero visibility, the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) has confirmed it will not publish an employment report for October at all.

Coupled with the delay of the November report until mid-December, today’s long-overdue release of the September non-farm payrolls has suddenly become the single most important economic release of the quarter. It is the last piece of official labour market data the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will see before it meets to decide on interest rates on 9–10 Dec.

The Last Data Point

Economists polled by Reuters are forecasting a sombre print, expecting just 50,000 jobs to be added to the economy in September, with the unemployment rate predicted to hold steady at 4.3%.

Under normal circumstances, the September data released in late November would be treated as a historical footnote. However, due to the government shutdown that scrambled the statistical calendar, this "stale" data is now the only signal policymakers have to gauge the health of the jobs market.

The Data Void

The confirmation that the October report has been entirely scrapped, rather than just postponed, creates a significant blind spot. The BLS also noted that the November report, typically available in early December, has been pushed back to 16 Dec.

This timing is critical. The FOMC meets on 9–10 Dec. This means the committee will be forced to make a decision on whether to cut rates again or pause, without knowing how the economy performed in October or November. They are effectively flying the plane based on weather reports from two months ago.

Market Recalibration

The uncertainty has already triggered a repricing of risk. Following the BLS announcement, the implied odds of a rate cut at the December meeting have collapsed to approximately 30%, according to CME FedWatch.

The logic is simple but brutal: a central bank that prides itself on data dependency is unlikely to risk a consecutive rate cut when it is blinded to current conditions. Unless today’s September print shows a catastrophic collapse in hiring, the "data blackout" likely hands the argument to the hawks who want to pause and wait for visibility to return in the new year.