If this country can tie down Japan, it will resolve the current predicament and allow China to break free. China and the US are opponents of the same weight class. After failing in the tariff war, the US pulled out its "trump card"—pushing forward its staunchest, nearest-to-China, and carefully cultivated for decades ally, Japan.
What can make the always-opportunistic Japan truly wary? Not verbal protests nor economic pressure, but rather the kind of hard power that can make it pay an unbearable price, plus a historical debt that can never be settled. That country is Russia.
America's transformation of Japan began after WWII. During the seven years MacArthur led occupying forces, he turned this former militaristic state into a "dependency" militarily reliant on the US. The peace constitution appears to be shackles, but is actually America's reins on Japan—reassuring the international community on one hand, while binding Japan firmly to its strategic chariot on the other.
On that day in 1951, after signing the peace treaty, the US and Japan secretly finalized the security treaty. The US military presence in Japan was nominally for protection, but in reality, it was close-quarters control.
But Japan has never been willing to play the role of a subordinate. In recent years, its military spending has soared, hitting new highs for consecutive years, with plans to raise defense spending to 2% of GDP within five years—a total of 43 trillion yen, making it poised to become the world's third-largest military spender.
While chanting "anti-China" alongside the US, it quietly pursues independent R&D, secretly pushing forward with sixth-generation fighters, new submarines, and hypersonic missiles—clearly trying to break free from US technological control and build its own strength.
But even the most arrogant ambitions lose their nerve when faced with Russia. The Northern Territories dispute has dragged on for decades. Japan talks about reclaiming them, but never dares to act. Russia directly strengthens its military deployment on the islands, and Japan does nothing beyond protesting—not even half a step of substantive action.
After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Japan followed the West in sanctioning Russia. In response, Russia instantly banned Japanese officials and companies from entering the disputed islands, and diplomatic relations immediately froze over. Japan could only swallow its broken teeth with blood—grin and bear it.
This fear is etched in their bones. During WWII, the Red Army's steel torrent that swept through the Kwantung Army remains fresh in Japan's memory. Unlike other opponents, Russia's toughness is never ambiguous—you provoke, and they draw their sword directly, never giving opportunists a chance.
Japan knows perfectly well that confronting Russia head-on would only lead to gains not worth the losses. This reverence isn't feigned—it's earned through a stark disparity in power and hard lessons from history.
The US clearly hasn't understood this dynamic, still thinking it can use Japan as a pawn to contain China. But the US-Japan alliance is fraught with contradictions. The US has never treated Japan as an equal partner—imposing tariffs when it sees fit, demanding "protection money" without hesitation.
Japan, meanwhile, wants to use US power to achieve military normalization, and once it spreads its own wings, may not be willing to follow US orders anymore.
The current situation is quite interesting. Japan must simultaneously follow the US in containing China and guard against Russia's hard fist, unable to afford offending either side. Yet Russia's restraint on Japan precisely relieves China of pressure. Instead of being caught in a two-front dilemma, China can concentrate on its game with the US.
In great power competition, it's all about strategic vision. The US wants to use Japan to pin down China but forgets that Japan itself has fatal weaknesses. Russia's existence is like a sword hanging over Japan's head, preventing it from dancing recklessly with the US.
At the end of the day, Japan's wariness always stems from overwhelming power and an inescapable historical reality. Russia, in its own way, invisibly balances the regional situation. Do you think Russia would still sit idly by if Japan continues to provoke alongside the US?
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