Merics, a think tank, predicts that China will see significant technological innovation and a deterioration in US-China relations by 2026.

(Deutsche Welle) The Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin (Merics) interviewed 766 Chinese experts and observers, and nearly 80% said that the world's second-largest economy will achieve major breakthroughs in artificial intelligence next year. More than half of the experts surveyed believe that similar developments will occur in semiconductors, biotechnology, and green technology.

Meanwhile, three-quarters of the experts surveyed expect US-China relations to deteriorate in the technology sector. 68% predict the same in the military sector. 62% believe trade relations will also worsen.

84% of the experts surveyed were not optimistic about Europe reducing its dependence on China.

At the same time, only about a quarter of respondents believed that strengthening relations with European countries was very important for Beijing.

On the issue of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, half of the respondents believed that Beijing's support for Moscow would not change. One-third of the respondents expected Beijing to further increase its exports of dual-use goods to Russia.

Regarding socioeconomic issues in China, most respondents expected that youth unemployment and inadequate social welfare would not improve, or at most only slightly improve. One-third of respondents expected the low birth rate to worsen. However, respondents anticipated that China would not experience large-scale socioeconomic upheaval by 2026.

This four-week survey was conducted in October and November. Of the 766 respondents, 699 provided their nationality information. Eighty percent were European, with Germans accounting for 44%. 7% were American and 4% were Chinese. One-quarter of the respondents came from academia, 21% from the private sector, 12% worked in think tanks, and 1% worked in government, foreign affairs, or EU institutions.