The crisis in the global system of foreign aid is a problem for the effectiveness of the UK’s own aid strategy. By 2026, global aid is expected to have declined by almost a third compared to its 2023 level, as spending cuts by many donors – including the UK and, most consequentially, the US – reduce funding for conflict prevention, peacebuilding, humanitarian response, and provision of global public goods such as vaccination or climate action.
This paper examines how the UK government can best respond to the security and geopolitical risks of this new era of aid scarcity. Fiscal constraints, partly related to defence commitments, mean that additional funding for UK foreign aid is unlikely to be forthcoming. The aid budget is being cut to 0.3 per cent of gross national income by 2027. As a result, the government will need to do more with less, and be more selective and strategic in its approach.
The paper argues, among other recommendations, that the UK needs to work with European allies on a clearer offer of partnership (going beyond aid) to states in the Global South; join forces with like-minded states to address ‘aid fragmentation’ and shore up the multilateral system; preserve internal expertise for dealing with fragile and conflict-affected countries; and tell a clearer public story about how foreign aid supports UK interests and security.
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